Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign

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Donald Trump for President 2024
Campaign2024 U.S. presidential election
2024 Republican primaries
CandidateDonald Trump
45th President of the United States (2017–2021)
AffiliationRepublican Party
StatusAnnounced: November 15, 2022
Presumptive nominee: March 6, 2024[a]
HeadquartersArlington, Virginia[1]
Key people
ReceiptsUS$88,478,987.53[6] (January 31, 2024)
Slogan
Website
www.donaldjtrump.com

Donald Trump, the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021, announced his campaign for a nonconsecutive second presidential term in the 2024 U.S. presidential election on November 15, 2022.

Trump has campaigned on vastly expanding the authority of the federal government, particularly the executive branch, which calls for a reimposition of the Jacksonian spoils system,[7][8] immediately invoking the Insurrection Act of 1807 to deploy the military onto American streets,[9][10] and directing the Department of Justice to go after domestic political enemies.[10] Other campaign issues include: implementing anti-immigrant policies and a massive deportation operation;[11] pursuing an isolationist "America First" foreign policy agenda;[12][13] repealing the Affordable Care Act;[14][15] pursuing a climate change denial and anti-clean energy platform;[16][17][18] terminating the Department of Education;[17] implementing anti-LGBT policies;[19][17] and pursuing what has been described as a neomercantilist trade agenda.[20][21] Trump has been leaning into violent and authoritarian rhetoric throughout the campaign.[22][23][24][25] Trump has increasingly used dehumanizing and violent rhetoric against his political enemies.[22] His 2024 campaign has been noted for leaning into nativist[26] and anti-LGBT rhetoric.[27]

The campaign is unfolding as Trump faces the legal aftermath of four criminal indictments filed against him in 2023, as well as a civil investigation of the Trump Organization in New York. The campaign has continued to promote false claims that the former 2020 election was stolen,[28] and comes in the wake of Trump's unprecedented attempts to overturn the 2020 United States presidential election[29][30] and its culmination in the January 6 United States Capitol attack,[31][32] which has been widely described as an attempted coup d'état[33][34] or self-coup.[35][36]

National primary polling shows Trump leading by 50 points over other candidates.[37] After he won a landslide victory in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses, Trump was generally described as being the Republican Party's presumptive nominee for president,[38][39] with a process of consolidation now underway.[40]

Background

Trump, the incumbent president, unsuccessfully sought election to a second term in the 2020 United States presidential election, losing to Democratic nominee Joe Biden, who obtained an electoral vote of 306 to Trump's 232. Trump also lost the popular vote by seven million votes.[41] He refused to concede the loss and claimed that the election was stolen. Trump and his allies in seven key states then allegedly devised a plot to create and submit fraudulent certificates of ascertainment that falsely asserted Trump had won the electoral college vote in those states.[42] The intent was to pass the fraudulent certificates to Mike Pence to count them rather than the authentic certificates and overturn Joe Biden's victory. Trump reportedly had been considering a 2024 presidential run immediately after his loss in the election if the plot failed to "work out."[43][44] In the week of November 9, 2020, Trump indicated to Republican Party senator Kevin Cramer: "If this doesn't work out, I'll just run again in four years."[45] Later, a group of Trump's supporters attacked the United States Capitol building to prevent the election results from being certified.[46][47]

With one week remaining in his presidency, Trump was impeached by the House of Representatives for incitement of insurrection for his actions during the January 6, 2021, Capitol Hill attack, but was acquitted in the Senate with a bipartisan 57–43 vote in favor of conviction, which fell short of the two-thirds supermajority (67 out of 100 senators) required.[48]

In December 2021, CNN reported that "Trump's wait-and-see approach to the 2024 election has frozen the next Republican presidential primary", with potential challengers keeping their heads down while awaiting Trump's official decision on the matter.[49]

In July 2022, as the public hearings of the House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack were progressing, Trump was reportedly considering making an early announcement of his 2024 candidacy.[50][51] On July 14, 2022, Intelligencer published an interview with Trump, based upon which they reported that Trump had already made up his mind, and was just deciding when to declare.[52] Following the August 2022 FBI search of Mar-a-Lago, many of Trump's allies urged that he announce his candidacy sooner, including some who had previously advised that he defer an announcement until after the mid-term elections.[53] During a rally in Iowa in the run-up to the 2022 United States midterm elections, Trump stated, "in order to make our country successful and safe and glorious, I will very, very, very probably do it again", indicating that he might announce his candidacy soon thereafter, prompting speculation that he would announce as soon as the week of November 14, 2022.[54][55]

After months of speculation, Trump announced his candidacy for president in a November 15, 2022, speech to supporters at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida.[56][57] His announcement received wide media coverage and a mixed response from both Democrats and Republicans. Some Democrats warily welcomed the campaign, viewing Trump as beatable,[58][59] while others opposed it, citing negative effects it could have on U.S. democracy.[60][61][62] Some Republicans, consisting mostly of Trump loyalists, welcomed the campaign, while others (including many Republican elected officials)[63] opposed it, viewing Trump as a weak and beatable candidate who had cost the Republicans the past several election cycles.[64][65][66]

In August 2023, Trump was indicted separately both by the federal government and the state of Georgia on numerous criminal conspiracy and fraud charges he is alleged to have committed along with co-conspirators during efforts to illegally change and overturn the results of the lost 2020 presidential election.[67] The indictments allege that Trump engaged in a criminal conspiracy to illegally alter the results of the 2020 election via fraudulent electors in the Trump fake electors plot as well as pressuring government officials to illegally change vote tallies during incidents such as the Trump–Raffensperger phone call. Prior to these indictments on charges relating to Attempts to overturn the 2020 United States presidential election, on March 30, 2023, Trump was also indicted for 34 felony counts of fraud stemming from his alleged role in falsifying business records related to hush money payments made to pornographic film actress Stormy Daniels during his 2016 U.S. presidential election campaign.[68][69] Trump called his indictment political persecution and election interference.[70] Later, on June 8, Trump was indicted by a federal grand jury for allegedly improperly retaining classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago residence and destroying evidence related to the government probe.[71] In addition to the four criminal indictments brought against Trump in Georgia, Washington, Florida, and New York, on May 9, Trump was found liable in a civil lawsuit for sexual abuse and defamation against journalist E. Jean Carroll.[72] Trump said that he will appeal the decision, describing it to be "unconstitutional silencing" and "political persecution."[73]

Announcement

On November 15, 2022, Trump announced his candidacy at Mar-a-Lago in an hour-long speech.[74][75][76][77] The announcement came one week after the 2022 mid-term elections in which Trump-endorsed candidates underperformed non-Trump-endorsed candidates.[78] His announcement speech had at least "20 false and misleading claims",[76] uttering the first inaccurate claim "about two minutes in and a few minutes later, tick(ing) off at least four hyperbolic claims about his own accomplishments".[77] The New York Times Fact Check stated that "Mr. Trump repeated many familiar exaggerations about his own achievements, reiterated misleading attacks on political opponents and made dire assessments that were at odds with reality."[77]

The New York Post mocked Trump's announcement by relegating it to page 26 and noting it on the cover with a banner reading "Florida Man Makes Announcement".[79] The article referred to Mar-a-Lago as "Trump's classified-documents library" in reference to the ongoing investigation regarding Trump's alleged improper handling of classified materials which he had brought to Mar-a-Lago following his presidency for as yet unclear reasons.[79]

Attendees

The announcement was attended by comedian Alex Stein,[80] consultant Roger Stone, businessman Mike Lindell, outgoing Representative Madison Cawthorn (R-NC), former deputy director of the Office of Management and Budget Russell Vought, political advisor Jason Miller, attorney Kash Patel, political analyst Sebastian Gorka, and political aide Hogan Gidley.[81][82] The Insider noted "many members of Congress were not in attendance", including Matt Gaetz.[81] Family members who attended included Trump's wife and former first lady Melania, Trump's sons Barron and Eric, Eric's wife Lara, and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner. His daughters Ivanka and Tiffany did not attend the announcement party; Ivanka said she would not be engaging in politics going forward and would not be a part of her father's presidential bid.[83] Trump's son Donald Trump Jr. also did not attend.[81] Stan Fitzgerald, president of Veterans for America First, attended.[84]

Platform

A central campaign theme for Trump's second presidential bid is "retribution."[85][86] Trump announced the theme during his March 2023 speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference, stating "In 2016, I declared, 'I am your voice.' Today, I add: I am your warrior. I am your justice. And for those who have been wronged and betrayed, I am your retribution. I am your retribution." Trump framed the 2024 election as "the final battle," and openly promised to leverage the power of the presidency for political reprisals. The New York Times reported that the comments were in Trump's prepared remarks, not off the cuff, and that aides were pleased with the "sinister" tone which was quickly spread by official Trump accounts across social media.[87]

Expansion of executive and presidential power

Trump's platform calls for the vast expansion of presidential powers and the executive branch over every part of the federal government. In campaign speeches, Trump stated that he would centralize government power under his authority, replace career federal civil service employees with political loyalists, and use the military for domestic law enforcement and the deportation of immigrants.[88]

Trump has called to bring independent agencies such as the Federal Communications Commission and Federal Trade Commission under direct presidential control. Trump's allies have drafted an executive order requiring all independent agencies to submit actions to the White House for review. Trump has called for presidential authority to 'impound' funds for Congressionally appropriated programs, a practice which was outlawed under President Richard Nixon. Trump promised to order the Justice Department to investigate political rivals and Joe Biden. Trump has called for stripping employment protections for thousands of career civil service employees and replacing them with political loyalists if deemed an 'obstacle to his agenda' within federal agencies, the United States Intelligence Community, State Department, and Department of Defense.[89]

Trump's proposals are based on a maximalist interpretation of the unitary executive theory. The theory rejects the notion of the separation of powers and that the government is composed of three separate branches but that Article Two of the United States Constitution gives the President absolute authority of the executive branch. The theory is noted to be in line with Trump's thinking owing to comments made in 2019, where he stated "I have an Article 2, where I have the right to do whatever I want as president."[89] Such proposals would be carried out via the reintroduction of Schedule F that was originally introduced at the end of Trump's former presidency, which would strip civil service protections of tens of thousands of civil servants to be at-will appointments filled with Trump loyalists identified by Project 2025 of The Heritage Foundation.[90] The reforms have been described as a reimposition of the Jacksonian spoils system.[7][8] Trump has stated his intention to see these reforms completed in order to root out the 'deep state,' stating: "We will expel the warmongers from our government. We will drive out the globalists. We will cast out the communists, Marxists and fascists. And we will throw off the sick political class that hates our country."[89]

Use of the Insurrection Act

Trump and his allies have reportedly drafted executive orders to invoke the Insurrection Act on the first day of his presidency to allow the military to shut down civil demonstrations against him.[10] Campaigning in Iowa, Trump stated he would deploy the military in Democratic cities and states.[9] The Insurrection Act would be used to allow the military to detain migrants at the southern border.[11]

Law enforcement

Trump has made conflicting statements regarding his support for law enforcement during his 2024 campaign, notably running on a pro-police 'law and order' platform while also attacking state and federal law enforcement that is viewed as unfriendly to himself or in relation to his multiple criminal incitements.[91] Trump has previously called for defunding the FBI and Justice Department in response to their investigations into his attempts to overturn the 2020 election and his handling of classified documents.[92] Trump-aligned Project 2025 has called for terminating the FBI and slashing funding for the DOJ.[25] Trump has repeatedly stated his intention to have the DOJ investigate his domestic political rivals, judges, prosecutors, and witnesses involved in his criminal trials.[93][94] The Washington Post previously reported Trump's plans to use the Justice Department to prosecute critics of the former president including former attorney general Bill Barr and former chief of staff John F. Kelly.[10]

Trump has frequently criticized perceived restrictions on police use of force, and has called for the use of strong-arming local governments that receive federal grants to reimpose stop-and-frisk, has supported shooting suspected shoplifters, the extrajudicial shooting of petty criminals,[91] and imposing the death penalty for smugglers.[17] Trump has called for qualified immunity and the complete indemnification for police officers, which experts have stated is largely unnecessary and would already reinforce existing police policy.[91]

Immigration

Since fall 2023,[95] Trump has claimed undocumented immigrants are "poisoning the blood of our country," which has drawn comparisons to racial hygiene rhetoric used by white supremacists and Adolf Hitler.[96][97] The New York Times reported the next month that Trump planned "an extreme expansion of his first-term crackdown on immigration," including "preparing to round up undocumented people already in the United States on a vast scale and detain them in sprawling camps while they wait to be expelled," and that it "amounts to an assault on immigration on a scale unseen in modern American history." The New York Times also reported that Trump's advisors are preparing a 'blitz' strategy designed to overwhelm immigrant-rights lawyers, and that his plans would rely on existing statutes without the need for new legislation, although such legislation would also likely be attempted. Trump's plans are expected to encounter significant Supreme Court challenges, and engender social and economic toil, especially within the housing, agriculture, and service sectors.[11]

Trump has stated that his plan would follow the 'Eisenhower model,' a reference to the 1954 campaign Operation Wetback, stating to a crowd in Iowa: "Following the Eisenhower model, we will carry out the largest domestic deportation operation in American history." To achieve the goal of deporting millions per year, Trump has stated his intent to expand a form of deportation that does not require due process hearings which would be accomplished by the expedited removal authorities of 8 U.S. Code § 1225; invoking the Alien Enemies Act within the Alien and Sedition Acts of 1798; and invoking the Insurrection Act of 1807 to allow the military to apprehend migrants and thus bypass the Posse Comitatus Act. Trump would reassign federal agents to Immigrations and Customs Enforcement and deputize local police officers and National Guard soldiers volunteered by Republican states. Individuals would be placed in massive camps constructed with funds redirected from the military budget in case of any refusal by Congress to appropriate funding. ICE raids would be expanded to include workplace raids and sweeps in public places. The Trump team will attempt to overturn the Flores settlement that prevents the indefinite holding of children.[11]

Trump has promised to reinstate his ban on entry to individuals from certain Muslim-majority nations, and having the Centers for Disease Control reimpose COVID-era restrictions on asylum claims by asserting migrants carry infectious diseases such as the flu, tuberculosis, and scabies.[11] Trump has said he would build more of the border wall, and move thousands of troops currently stationed overseas to the southern border.[17]

Other proposals include: banning visas of foreign students who participated in anti-Israel or pro-Palestinian protests; suspending the U.S. refugee program; directing U.S. consular officials to expand ideological screening of applicants deemed to have undesirable attitudes; revoking temporary protected status to individuals living in the United States, including Afghans who moved to America following the 2021 Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, while those who helped U.S. forces would be 're-vetted' to see if they really did; ending birthright citizenship for babies born in the United States to undocumented parents; using coercive diplomacy by making immigration cooperation a condition for any bilateral engagement; reinstating 'Remain in Mexico'; and reviving 'safe third country' status with several nations in Central America, and expanding them to Africa, Asia, and South America.[11]

Trump's campaign has stated his intention to expel DACA recipients after his previous attempt failed in 2020 by a 5–4 vote in the Supreme Court in Department of Homeland Security v. Regents of the University of California. Trump's campaign has not stated whether they will reinstate Trump's former child separation policies.[11]

Throughout January and early February 2024, Trump successfully called on House and Senate Republicans to kill a bipartisan immigration deal to address the Mexico–United States border crisis that included several sought-after Conservative proposals. Trump claimed that it would hurt his and Republican's reelection chances and ability to run off immigration as a campaign issue.[98][99][100][101][102][103]

Economy and trade

Trump's stated trade policy involves the United States decoupling from the global economy and having the country become more self-contained and exerting its power through individual trade dealings. The New York Times has stated if enacted, Trump's proposed changes would have large impacts on jobs, prices, global alliances, and risk igniting a global trade war.[20] This would be accomplished through a universal baseline tariff[20] of "perhaps 10%" on most foreign goods, with increased penalties if trade partners manipulate their currency or engage in unfair trade practices. Trump stated his plans to urge Congress to pass a "Trump Reciprocal Trade Act" to bestow presidential authority to impose a reciprocal tariff on any country that imposed one on the United States.[17] Trump's policies have been described as neomercantilist or autarkist.[21][20]

Trump's trade policies are noted to be aimed against China. The Washington Post reported in January 2024 that Trump had discussed with advisors imposing a 60% tariff on all Chinese imports.[104] Trump has proposed a four-year plan to phase out Chinese imports of essential goods such as electronics, steel, and pharmaceuticals. Trump proposes forcing Chinese owners to sell any holdings "that jeopardize America's national security," and ban Chinese holding of vital infrastructure in the energy, technology, and agricultural sectors, among others.[17] Trump-aligned Project 2025 also plans for dismantling the Department of Commerce.[25]

In January 2024, Trump stated that the American economy was "so fragile" and "running off the fumes" of his administration's actions. Trump further stated that "when there's a crash — I hope it's going to be during this next 12 months because I don't want to be Herbert Hoover," who was the president who presided over the beginning of the Great Depression.[105]

Foreign policy

Trump's 2024 campaign has reiterated its isolationist "America First" foreign policy agenda.[12] Trump has stated that even before he is inaugurated,[17] he will have ended the Russo-Ukrainian War in 24 hours,[12] stop the "endless flow of American treasure to Ukraine," and ask Europeans to reimburse the U.S. the cost of rebuilding its stockpiles.[17] Trump previously stated he would potentially recognize Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea,[106] and made suggestions that he could have prevented the war by ceding parts of eastern Ukraine to Russia.[12]

Trump has promised to "fundamentally reevaluate" NATO's purpose and mission.[17] During his previous time as president, Trump repeatedly denigrated the NATO alliance, and suggested several times of withdrawing the United States from the alliance.[106] Trump has previously made comments questioning whether or not to come to the defense of a NATO ally depending on whether they "fulfilled their obligations to us," called the European Union a "foe" based on "what they do to us in trade," and has provided recent statements questioning the value of alliances.[12] On January 9, 2024, Thierry Breton claimed that in January 2020 during the World Economic Forum in Davos, Trump told Ursula von der Leyen that "if Europe is under attack, we will never come to help you and to support you," and that "NATO is dead, and we will leave, we will quit NATO," along with claims that Germany owed America $400 billion for defense.[107] On January 10, 2024, responding to question about his commitment to NATO during a Fox News town hall, Trump stated that "NATO has taken advantage of our country" and conditioned NATO commitment based on "if they treat us properly."[108] Trump previously attempted to withdraw troops from Germany during the end of his presidency due to anger with then-Chancellor Angela Merkel, but the order was rescinded by President Biden.[13]

During a February 2024 rally in South Carolina, Trump discussed a past conversation he had when president, recounting a foreign leader from NATO asking what Trump would do if "we don't pay and we're attacked by Russia", to which Trump responded that he would not defend the "delinquent" NATO country, instead he would "encourage" Russia to "do whatever the hell they want."[13][109][110] Trump reiterated his stance on NATO members a few days later, stating that "if they're not going to pay, we're not going to protect".[111]

Trump has voiced support for Israel in the Israel–Hamas war, and has stated that they must "finish the problem".[112] Trump has previously promised he would bar Gaza residents from entering the United States through an extended travel ban.[113]

Abortion

Trump has been noted by analysts' for attempting to strike a middle ground on abortion despite previously claiming to be "the most pro-life president ever,"[114] and taking credit for having appointed the Supreme Court justices responsible for the overturning of Roe v. Wade.[115] Trump has not stated whether he supports a 15-week abortion ban, stating "I'm not going to say I would or I wouldn't,"[116] but has stated that Ron DeSantis' six-week abortion ban is "terrible."[114]

Trump has previously made conflicting statements about his stance on abortion. In 1999 as part of the Reform Party, Trump stated that he was "very pro-choice." During his 2016 campaign, Trump stated that women should be punished for having an abortion,[116] and claimed he would appoint pro-life justices to the Supreme Court.[117] On June 24, 2022, Trump claimed credit for appointing the justices responsible for the Dobbs decision.[118] On May 17, 2023, Trump took credit for ending Roe, stating on Truth Social, "After 50 years of failure, with nobody coming even close, I was able to kill Roe v. Wade, much to the "shock" of everyone, and for the first time put the Pro Life movement in a strong negotiating position over the Radicals that are willing to kill babies even into their 9th month, and beyond. Without me there would be no 6 weeks, 10 weeks, 15 weeks, or whatever is finally agreed to. Without me the pro Life movement would have just kept losing. Thank you President TRUMP!!!"[116][119][120] On January 10, 2024, during a Fox News town hall, Trump stated that "for 54 years, they were trying to get Roe v. Wade terminated, and I did it. And I'm proud to have done it." He also reiterated his opposition to Ron DeSantis and Florida's six-week abortion ban.[121]

Social services and healthcare

Trump has promised to replace the Affordable Care Act if elected as president.[14] Some Republican senators have signaled openness to unwind and replace the ACA. No specifics on a replacement plan have yet been revealed. Trump previously attempted to repeal the ACA in 2017.[15][122][123]

During a March 11, 2024 interview, Trump suggested he was open to cutting entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare, which the Trump campaign later claimed was merely referring to "cutting waste" and that he would protect the programs. Trump previously suggested while president in 2020 that he would "at some point" look into cutting entitlement programs, and Trump's previous budget proposals have suggested some cuts to the programs. During the Republican primary, Trump attacked his opponents by suggesting they would cut entitlement benefits.[124][125]

LGBT rights

Trump has stated that he will ask Congress to pass a bill stating that the United States will only recognize two genders as determined at birth, and has promised to crackdown on gender-affirming care. Trump has stated that hospitals and health care providers that provide transitional hormones or surgery will no longer qualify for federal funding, including Medicare and Medicaid funding. Trump has stated he will push to prohibit hormonal and surgical intervention for minors in all 50 states.[17]

Trump has promised "severe consequences" for teachers that "suggest to a child that they could be trapped in the wrong body." Trump previously removed Title IX protections to ensure transgender youth had access to bathrooms of their choice and took steps to roll back transgender protections in the Affordable Care Act.[19]

Education

Trump has pledged to terminate the Department of Education,[17] claiming it has been infiltrated by "radical zealots and Marxists,"[126] but also pledged to exert influence over local school districts and universities by giving funding preference to schools that abolish teacher tenure, adopt merit pay, and allow the direct election of school principals by parents. Trump has said that he would refuse to fund any school with a mask or vaccine mandate. Trump has stated his support for teachers to carry concealed weapons, and to provide funding to allow schools to hire armed guards.[17][127]

Trump has stated his intention to promote prayer in public schools, and stated he will fight for "patriotic education" that will "teach students to love their country, not to hate their country like they're taught right now" and will promote "the nuclear family" including "the roles of mothers and fathers" and the "things that make men and women different and unique."[17] Trump has stated he will cut federal funding for programs that include "critical race theory, gender ideology, or other inappropriate racial, sexual, or political content onto our children."[126]

Trump has also proposed an "American Academy," a free online university open to all Americans to be funded by taxes on endowments of universities that have large endowments.[128][129]

Energy, environment, and climate change

Trump is running on a climate change denial platform.[16] Trump has repeatedly referred to his energy policy under the mantra "drill, baby, drill,"[130] or "drill, drill, drill,"[131][132] and has promised to increase oil drilling on public lands and offer tax breaks to oil, gas, and coal producers. Trump has stated his goal for the U.S. to have the lowest cost of electricity and energy of any country in the world.[17]

Trump has promised to rollback electric vehicle initiatives and rescind proposed EPA tailpipe emission limits that would require 54% of new vehicles to be electric by 2030. Trump has proposed leaving the Paris Climate Accords, ending wind subsidies, and eliminating regulations targeting incandescent lightbulbs, gas stoves, dishwashers and shower heads.[17] Trump previously rescinded over 125 environmental rules and policies designed to reduce planet-warming emissions during his previous presidency. Plans drafted by the Heritage Foundation as part of Project 2025 promise the "rescinding of all funds not already spent" by the Inflation Reduction Act, slashing funding for the Environmental Protection Agency, and closing the Energy Department's renewable energy offices.[18]

Trump has made varied statements over the years about his belief in climate change. Between 2011 and 2015, Trump made a total of 115 tweets expressing climate change denial. During his initial 2016 campaign, Trump stated that climate change was a hoax, that China was using the myth of climate change to gain an advantage over the United States, and that environmentalists were using the phrase climate change because global warming didn't stick.[133] In an October, 2018 interview with 60 Minutes, Trump stated that he didn't deny climate change and that something was changing, but doubted it was being caused by mankind and speculated it was part of a natural cycle and could "go back," and that scientists have a political agenda.[134] In January, 2019, Trump mocked a Defense Department report outlining climate change's effects by pointing to a major winter storm at the time.[135] In September 2020, Trump stated that he believed humans played a small role in causing climate change.[136] However, in an interview with Fox in March 2022, Trump stated again that climate change was a hoax, and that the climate naturally fluctuated and mentioned concerns of global cooling in the 1920s.[137] In November, 2022, Trump repeated claims on the campaign trail ridiculing efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the Green New Deal, and incorrectly stated that the effects of climate change wouldn't happen for another 200 to 300 years.[138] During his 2024 presidential run, Trump has repeated that human-caused climate change is fake, and has made false claims that whale deaths are caused by wind turbines.[16] Trump has not officially stated how he will deal with climate change if reelected to the White House.[139]

Rhetoric

Violent and dehumanizing statements

Trump's campaign has been noted for using increasingly dehumanizing and violent rhetoric against his political enemies.[140][141][142][143] In public remarks in September 2023, Trump used violent rhetoric, calling for shoplifters to be shot and Mark Milley, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff appointed by him, to be executed for treason; he also made fun of the hammer attack that critically injured the husband of the then House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.[141] Trump has repeatedly attacked law enforcement in relation to their criminal investigations into his attempts to overturn the 2020 election and his handling of classified documents,[91] calling them "political monsters," telling people to "go after" New York attorney general Letitia James, and warning that an indictment against him by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin L. Bragg would bring "potential death and destruction," among other comments,[93] which have all raised concerns over officers' physical safety.[144] While discussing the U.S. economy and its auto industry, Trump promised to place tariffs on cars manufactured abroad if he won the election, adding "Now, if I don't get elected, it's going to be a ... blood bath for the country."[145][146]

Since fall 2023,[95] Trump has repeatedly used racial hygiene rhetoric by stating that undocumented immigrants are "poisoning the blood of our country," which has been compared to language echoing that of white supremacists and Adolf Hitler.[142][147][148][149] Trump's anti-immigration tone is noted to have grown harsher from his previous time as president, where, as reported in The New York Times, he "privately mused about developing a militarized border like Israel's, asked whether migrants crossing the border could be shot in the legs and wanted a proposed border wall topped with flesh-piercing spikes and painted black to burn migrants' skin." Recent rhetoric includes statements that foreign leaders are deliberately emptying insane asylums to send the patients across America's southern border as migrants, and comparing migrants to the fictional serial killer Hannibal Lecter.[11] Trump has claimed that some undocumented immigrants are "not people,"[150] and "animals."[146] Trump has described immigrants as deadly snakes during his rallies, repurposing lyrics from the 1968 song "The Snake."[149]

In a campaign speech and a post on his social media site on Veterans Day, November 11, 2023, Trump called some of his political opponents "vermin," promising to "root out" the "communists, Marxists, fascists and the radical left thugs that live like vermin within the confines of our country that lie and steal and cheat on elections." Trump's use of the term "vermin" was criticized for echoing the facist rhetoric of Benito Mussolini and Adolf Hitler.[143][151][152] Trump said his political opponents were a greater threat to the United States than countries such as Russia, China, and North Korea.[143][151] Trump campaign spokesman Steven Cheung responded to criticism by saying:

Those who try to make that ridiculous assertion are clearly snowflakes grasping for anything because they are suffering from Trump Derangement Syndrome, and their sad, miserable existence will be crushed when President Trump returns to the White House.[151]

According to the New York Times, scholars are undecided about whether Trump's "rhetorical turn into more fascist-sounding territory is just his latest public provocation of the left, an evolution in his beliefs, or the dropping of a veil."[153]

Trump's "blood bath" comment

Trump received significant media attention over a March 16, 2024 rally, where in a section of a speech talking about the automobile industry, Trump stated that "Now, if I don’t get elected, it’s going to be a blood bath for the whole — that’s going to be the least of it. It’s going to be a blood bath for the country."[154] Many commentators saw the use of the term "blood bath" as a call to political violence and congruent with the larger pattern of violent rhetoric that Trump has used during his 2024 campaign,[155][156][157][158][159] or that it was a call for another January 6-style attack.[160]

Trump later said that the quote was taken out of context and that he was referring to the automobile industry, calling the controversy the result of the "Fake News".[161][162][163] Others said it was unclear exactly what Trump meant within the context of the speech.[163][164]

Lisa Friedman of The New York Times stated that even if Trump's comment referred to automobiles, it fit a pattern of increasingly brutal language Trump uses towards electric vehicles, and that some experts believe Trump is "normalizing violence by peppering a screed against electric vehicles with promises of a "blood bath" if he loses the election"[165] and that supporters of Trump have responded violently even when his language is ambiguous.[161]

Authoritarian and antidemocratic statements

Trump's 2024 campaign has been criticized by the media for making increasingly violent and authoritarian statements,[166][167][153][168] with some commentators and historians even calling Trump's rhetoric fascist,[b] and that it represents a hardening of language previously used in his 2020 campaign.[176]

Despite Trump's former attempts to overturn the 2020 United States presidential election[29][30] and its culmination in the January 6 United States Capitol attack,[31][32] widely described as an attempted coup d'état[177][33][34] or self-coup;[35][36] Trump has claimed that Joe Biden is the "destroyer"[28] and real threat to democracy,[178] and has repeated false claims that the 2020 election was rigged and stolen from him, of which there has been no evidence.[28] Trump has previously stated he has the power to "terminate" the Constitution to reverse his election loss.[179][180]

Trump has repeatedly stated his intention to have the DOJ investigate his domestic political rivals,[94] judges, prosecutors, and witnesses involved in his criminal trials, and has suggested investigating MSNBC and NBC's parent corporation Comcast if he returns to office, calling their news coverage of him "treason."[93] Trump stated during a November 2023 interview with Univision, "if I happen to be president and I see somebody who's doing well and beating me very badly, I say go down and indict them, mostly they would be out of business. They'd be out. They'd be out of the election."[94]

During a rally in December 2023, Trump quoted Vladimir Putin condemning American democracy, stating that the criminal charges against him "shows the rottenness of the American political system, which cannot pretend to teach others about democracy," and praised Viktor Orbán and Kim Jong Un.[181][182] Trump has been noted to praise despots in public and in private during his 2024 campaign.[183]

Trump's dictator comment

On December 5, 2023, in a recorded television interview with Sean Hannity, Trump said he would only be a dictator on "day one" of his presidency and not after,[c] and did not answer Hannity's question if he would not "abuse power, to break the law, to use the government to go after people."[189] Trump campaign aides later stated that Trump was merely attempting to "trigger the left" and media with his dictator comment.[167] Peter Baker from The New York Times reported that after the statement, "talk about the possible authoritarian quality of a new Trump presidency has suffused the political conversation in the nation's capital," and stated that the Trump campaign was not doing enough to ease worries and seemed to be 'leaning in' to the media's autocratic predictions.[190]

On December 9, 2023, Trump responded to Baker's article about his dictator remarks at the New York Young Republican Club's 111th Annual Gala Keynote by saying "Baker today in the New York Times said that I want to be a dictator. I didn't say that. I said I want to be a dictator for one day. You know why I wanted to be a dictator? Because I want a wall, and I want to drill, drill, drill." Trump then claimed talk that he was a threat to democracy was Democrats 'newest hoax.'[132]

The comment sparked discussion about its meaning and possible consequences among the ones who found it unimportant,[191][192] and the ones who found it concerning.[193][194][195][196][197][198]

Comments on the January 6th United States Capitol attack

Trump has continually brought up the events of the January 6 attack on the Capitol during rallies and speeches for his 2024 campaign and has made it a political rallying cry.[199][200] Trump has repeatedly called those charged for their actions on that day as "hostages" and "great, great patriots" and has promised to pardon them if reelected to the presidency. Trump has noticeably downplayed the events of that day, calling it a "beautiful day" with "so much love," and played a video of the attack during a rally in Waco, Texas with a choir of former January 6 rioters singing the song Justice for All,[201][202] which he has continued to do at subsequent rallies and events.[203] Trump has spread baseless conspiracy theories at his rallies that "there was Antifa and there was FBI" at the riot.[204]

Claims

In rallies and interviews, Trump has repeatedly asserted that multiple events since the 2020 election would not have happened if he had won the election, those being the 2023 Hamas-led attack on Israel, the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, and inflation. Experts have stated that such events likely would still have happened even if Trump won the 2020 election. Jonathan Schanzer of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and Natan Sachs, the director of the Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution have stated that there was no Trump-era policy that would have stopped the Hamas attack on Israel.[205] Scholars have also estimated that Russia's invasion of Ukraine would likely still have occurred and that Trump's statements towards NATO and Russia would likely have made an initial unified response to the Russian invasion "implausable" and may have resulted in an early Russian victory.[206]

In his rally speeches, Trump falsely claims that the Biden administration is making Army tanks electric vehicles.[207][208][209][210]

In what CNN described as a "lie-filled CPAC speech" in February 2024, Trump repeated false claims about the 2020 election and the border wall.[211]

On March 18, 2024, Trump was criticized for claiming "any Jewish person that votes for Democrats hates their religion," and that "they hate everything about Israel, and they should be ashamed of themselves because Israel will be destroyed." Following mounting criticism from Jewish groups, Trump's campaign responded that "Trump is right," and that the Democratic Party "has turned into a full-blown anti-Israel, antisemitic, pro-terrorist cabal." Jonathan Greenblatt of the Anti-Defamation League called Trump's comments "defamatory and patently false." Chief executive Amy Spitalnick of the Jewish Council for Public Affairs claimed that Trump was "further normalizing dangerous antisemites." Trump's comments were accused of evoking an antisemetic trope that Jews have a 'dual loyalty' and are more loyal to Israel than to their own countries.[212]

Campaign events

Trump's campaign events have been described as "freewheeling," like a "rock show," and "filled with lies and mistruths." Events frequently include claims election denialism over the results of the 2020 presidential election, claims of victimization and persecution, anti-immigrant rhetoric, the retelling of unverified stories that showcase Trump's negotiating skills, and dark and apocalyptic messaging about the future if Trump doesn't win.[213]

Notable events

Trump rallies in New Hampshire

On January 28, 2023, Trump held his first campaign events in South Carolina and New Hampshire.[214][215]

On March 4, 2023, Trump delivered a lengthy keynote speech at the CPAC convention, also attended by Nikki Haley, but not by other prospective Republican candidates. In his speech, Trump promised to serve as the retribution for those who were wronged, and stated that he was the only candidate who could prevent World War III.[216]

On March 25, Trump staged a rally in Waco, Texas during the 30th anniversary of the Waco siege,[217][218][219][220] and notably opened with a rendition of the song Justice for All featuring a choir of about 20 men imprisoned for their role in the January 6 Capitol attack.[221]

In late April, Trump suggested he was not interested in debating other Republican contenders, at least not until later in the year.[222]

On May 10, 2023, Trump appeared one-on-one with news host Kaitlan Collins on CNN Republican Town Hall with Donald Trump at Saint Anselm College in New Hampshire, with an audience of Republican and undecided voters.[223][224] During the event Trump took credit for the overturning of Roe v. Wade (1973), supported defaulting on the national debt in the debt ceiling showdown, and again falsely claimed that the 2020 election was stolen.[225] Trump also suggested pardoning those convicted as a result of the January 6 United States Capitol attack.[226]

On January 27, 2024, during a rally in Las Vegas ahead of the state's presidential caucus, Trump took credit for attempting to block a bipartisan border security deal in the works in the Senate. Trump repeated his claims that the border crisis was an "invasion," an "open wound," "a crime against our nation" and "an atrocity against our Constitution," and admitted that he did not want a deal to pass as it would be "another gift to the Radical Left Democrats" who "need it politically" and would impact a key plank of his reelection campaign.[227][228]

On February 23, 2024, Trump was criticized for comments during a campaign speech for saying his four criminal indictments and mug shot boosted his appeal among black voters and for comparing his legal jeopardy to historical anti-black discrimination.[229][230][231]

Eligibility

The questions of Trump's eligibility to run for president in 2024 are delineated by the U.S. Constitution. Two amendments addressing this issue are the 14th and 22nd Amendments. On the one hand, some scholars have argued, although Trump has been indicted multiple times, neither the indictments nor any resulting convictions would render him ineligible for the office.[232][233] On the other hand, conservative, originalist scholars have argued that Trump is ineligible because Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment applies.[234]

On December 19, 2023, the Colorado Supreme Court ruled that Trump was disqualified from holding office and that his name must be removed from the Colorado Republican primary ballot. Trump's campaign said that he would appeal the decision to the U.S. Supreme Court.[235] On December 28, 2023, Maine's Secretary of State banned Trump from Maine's Republican primary ballot. The Trump campaign said that they would appeal the decision in Maine state courts, and the secretary of state suspended the ruling until the court's decision.[236] On March 4, 2024, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Colorado's Supreme Court ruling, saying that states don't have the authority to disqualify Trump or other candidates from federal elections under the 14th Amendment's insurrection clause.[237][238]

14th Amendment

GOP primary ballot eligibility prior to Trump v. Anderson
  Case dismissed by state supreme court
  Case dismissed by lower court
  Decision ruled that Trump is ineligible; stayed, pending appeal
  Lawsuit filed

In the aftermath of the American Civil War, the 14th Amendment was passed. Section 3 of the amendment prohibits anyone from holding public office if they had previously sworn an oath to support the Constitution, but then "engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the [United States], or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof." Trump's role in the January 6 United States Capitol attack is cited by opponents as a reason for his disqualification from seeking public office.

The non-profit group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) and other advocacy groups and individuals are planning state-by-state efforts to keep Trump off state ballots.[239][240] In 2023, court cases were brought in states including Colorado,[241] Michigan, Minnesota,[242] and New Hampshire.[243]

On December 19, 2023, the Colorado Supreme Court ruled in Anderson v. Griswold that Trump is ineligible to hold office under section three of the Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution and cannot appear on the ballot for the 2024 United States presidential election in Colorado.[244] The ruling, which marks the first time a court has ever determined that a presidential candidate is disqualified due to section three of the 14th Amendment,[245] was stayed to allow for an appeal.[246] The Colorado Republican Party appealed.[247][248] Trump also appealed.[249] The U.S. Supreme Court has agreed to hear the case.[250]

On March 4, 2024, the Colorado Supreme Court's ruling to disqualify Trump from the state's primary ballot was unanimously overturned by the United States Supreme Court.[251]

22nd Amendment

Trump has only been elected president once, in 2016, so is not limited from running again by the 22nd Amendment, which permits two full terms. Even before losing the 2020 election, he publicly proclaimed his willingness to seek a third term in 2024, despite this being explicitly prohibited. Trump claimed that Barack Obama had spied on him and his campaign, and that this meant he was "'entitled' [to a third term] because he was spied on."[252][253][254]

Trump has questioned presidential term limits on multiple occasions while in office, and in public remarks talked about serving beyond the limits of the 22nd Amendment. During an April 2019 White House event for the Wounded Warrior Project, he suggested he would remain president for 10 to 14 years.[255][256]

Trump is seeking to become the second president to ever serve non-consecutive terms, after Grover Cleveland who was re-elected in 1892. The last one-term president to campaign for a second non-consecutive term was Herbert Hoover, who after serving from 1929 to 1933 made unsuccessful runs in 1936 and 1940 after his loss in 1932.[257]

Post-announcement developments

Three days after Trump announced his candidacy, U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed Jack Smith to serve as special counsel for the investigations regarding Trump's role in the January 6 attack and into mishandling of government records.[258][259] Special counsels can be appointed when there can be a conflict of interest or the appearance of it, and Garland said the announced political candidacies of both Trump and President Biden prompted him to take what he described as an "extraordinary step".[258] Special counsel investigations operate largely independent of Justice Department control under decades-old federal regulations, and Garland said the "appointment underscores the department's commitment to both independence and accountability in particularly sensitive matters".[259]

On November 19, 2022, Elon Musk, four weeks after taking ownership of Twitter, reinstated both Trump's personal account and Trump's campaign account, nearly two years after Trump was permanently banned from the platform by previous Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey, due to Twitter's Glorification of Violence and Civic Integerity policies, following the January 6 United States Capitol attack.[260]

In late November 2022, Kanye West announced his own candidacy for the 2024 presidential election. Shortly thereafter, West visited Trump at Mar-a-Lago, bringing with him Nick Fuentes, a white nationalist and Holocaust denier.[261][262] West claimed that after he asked Trump to be his vice-presidential candidate, "Trump started basically screaming at me at the table telling me I was going to lose".[263] Trump responded with a statement that West "unexpectedly showed up with three of his friends, whom I knew nothing about",[264] and in a further statement acknowledged advising West to drop out of the race.[265] Several other possible 2024 contenders spoke in the aftermath of this event, with Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson calling the meeting "very troubling",[266] and Trump's former vice president Mike Pence calling on Trump to apologize for giving Fuentes "a seat at the table".[267] Mitch McConnell said that Trump was unlikely to win the 2024 presidential election as a result of the dinner.[268]

On December 3, 2022, following the publication of "The Twitter Files" by Elon Musk, Trump complained of election fraud and posted to Truth Social, calling for "the termination of all rules, regulations, and articles, even those found in the Constitution."[269][270][271]

In early 2023, Trump told his staff to hire white nationalist and anti-Muslim activist Laura Loomer to work on his campaign. After a backlash, the campaign decided not to hire her.[272]

Vice-presidential choice

Mike Pence served as Trump's vice president from 2017 to 2021, with Pence having been Trump's chosen running mate in both the 2016 and 2020 elections. In March 2021, Bloomberg News reported that if Trump runs again in 2024, Pence "likely won't be on the ticket" and that Trump had "discussed alternatives to Pence", while Trump's advisors "have discussed identifying a Black or female running mate for his next run".[273] In April 2021, Trump indicated that he was considering Florida governor Ron DeSantis for the position, noting his friendship with him;[274] he later criticized and ridiculed DeSantis[275] who launched his own presidential campaign on May 24, 2023.[276] In June 2022, a former aide testified that Trump had opined to his staff during the Capitol Hill attack that Pence "deserved" the chants of "hang Mike Pence" made by the mob.[277][278] Names raised as possible candidates for the position include:[273][279][280][281][282][283]

Trump has claimed that he has already picked his running mate, but refuses to tell anyone[284] and says that there is "only a 25 percent chance" he'll stick with the choice.[285]

In January 2024, independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. claimed that Trump had approached him to be his running mate and that he had refused the offer.[286] Trump campaign advisor Chris LaCivita denied that the Trump campaign had ever approached Kennedy to be Trump's running mate, however, and added that they had no plans on ever doing so.[287]

Endorsements

A number of Republican officials at both federal and state levels were quick to endorse Trump's candidacy, while others were noted for being silent on the question, with a few stating opposition, including former Attorney General Bill Barr, Senator Bill Cassidy, and Senator Mitt Romney.[288][289][290][291][292][293][294][excessive citations]

As of February 2024, Trump has received endorsements from 134 of 221 Republican House Representatives and 32 of 49 Republican Senators.[295]

Support

Politico noted in December 2020 that many Republican figures were expressing support for a Trump 2024 run, quoting Missouri Senator Josh Hawley as saying "If he were to run in 2024, I think he would be the nominee. And I would support him doing that."[296] National public opinion polling showed Trump quickly dominating the field of potential 2024 Republican candidates. Utah Senator Mitt Romney, though opposed to Trump, stated in February 2021 that if Trump ran in 2024, he would win the Republican nomination in a landslide.[297] The same month, Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said that he would "absolutely" support Trump if the latter was nominated again.[298]

In April 2022, American intelligence officials assessed that Russia intended to exact revenge on the Biden administration for its sanctions against Russia and aid for Ukraine by intervening in the election on Trump's behalf. A Russian state TV host, Evgeny Popov, said in March 2020, "to again help our partner Trump to become president".[299]

Opposition

In February 2023, Americans for Prosperity (AFP), the flagship of Charles Koch's network of donors and activist groups, announced it would fund a primary challenge to Trump.[300]

Besides the opposition to Trump's candidacy declared by Republican former executive branch officials, senators and representatives, statewide officials, public figures and organizations, Trump was challenged to primaries by Nikki Haley (February 14, 2023, to March 6, 2024), Vivek Ramaswamy (February 21, 2023, to January 15, 2024), Asa Hutchinson (April 6, 2023, to January 16, 2024), and Ron DeSantis (May 24, 2023, to January 21, 2024).

Other challengers, who withdrew before the primaries, were Perry Johnson (March 2, 2023, to October 20, 2023), Larry Elder (April 20, 2023, to October 26, 2023), Tim Scott (May 19, 2023, to November 12, 2023), Mike Pence (June 5, 2023, to October 28, 2023), Chris Christie (June 6, 2023, to January 10, 2024), Doug Burgum (June 7, 2023, to December 4, 2023), Francis Suarez (June 14, 2023, to August 29, 2023), and Will Hurd (June 22, 2023, to October 9, 2023).

When Nikki Haley announced her 2024 presidential campaign,[301] one of her first statements as a candidate was to call for candidates over the age of 75 - which would include both Trump and Biden - to be required to take a competency test.[302] She made the age issue a main campaign point during the rest of 2023 and the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries.[303][304][305] On November 28, 2023, AFP endorsed Nikki Haley.[306]

From August 23 to January 10, 2024, there were five debates among the candidates in the campaign for the Republican Party's nomination for president of the United States in the 2024 United States presidential election. Trump was absent from all of them, and was not planning to attend the debates scheduled for January 18 and 21, 2024.[307] On January 16, when she and Ron DeSantis were the last challengers left, Nikki Haley announced she wouldn't attend the January 18 debate unless Donald Trump took part in it. ABC News canceled that debate,[308] and CNN canceled the January 21 one.[309]

Responding to Haley's challenge, Trump stated that he had successfully taken two cognitive tests,[310][311][312] said that anyone who donated to Haley's campaign would be "permanently barred" from the "MAGA camp,"[313][314][315] and he nicknamed her "birdbrain."[316][317][318]

On February 25, 2024, when she lost the election in her home state, Americans for Prosperity cut funding to Nikki Haley's campaign.[319][320] After winning the primaries in Washington, D.C. (March 3) and Vermont (March 5), Haley suspended her presidential campaign the day after Super Tuesday.[321][322]

Primary election polling

Trump led in primary polling by a wide margin, "with GOP primary voters still seeing him as best positioned to beat President Biden. Most would back Trump enthusiastically, were he to be renominated".[323]

General election polling

Donald Trump versus Joe Biden
Poll source Date Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
RealClearPolitics August 10–23, 2023 45% 43% 12%
YouGov May 25–30, 2023 1,015 (RV) 48% 41% 11%
Echelon Insights May 22–25, 2023 1,035 (LV) 46% 44% 10%
Quinnipiac May 18–22, 2023 1,616 (RV) 48% 46% 6%
Morning Consult May 12–14, 2023 6,000 (RV) ± 1.0% 44% 41% 15%
WPA Intelligence May 10–13, 2023 1,571 (RV) ± 2.5% 47% 40% 13%
YouGov/Yahoo News May 5–8, 2023 1,060 (RV) 45% 43% 12%
Morning Consult May 5–7, 2023 6,000 (RV) 44% 42% 14%
Emerson College April 24–25, 2023 1,100 (RV) 43% 41% 16%
Morning Consult April 21–23, 2023 6,000 (RV) 43% 42% 15%
Cygnal April 18–20, 2023 2,500 (LV) 46% 45% 9%
Harvard/Harris April 18–19, 2023 1,845 (RV) 40% 45% 15%
YouGov/The Economist April 15–18, 2023 1,316 (RV) 43% 44% 13%
Premise April 14–17, 2023 1,485 (RV) 42% 44% 14%
YouGov/Yahoo News April 14–17, 2023 1,027 (RV) 46% 42% 12%
Morning Consult April 14–16, 2023 6,000 (RV) ± 1.0% 43% 40% 17%
YouGov/The Economist April 8–11, 2023 1,322 (RV) ± 2.9% 43% 44% 13%
Morning Consult April 7–9, 2023 5,000 (RV) ± 1.0% 43% 42% 15%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies April 4, 2023 1,180 (LV) 44% 43% 13%
YouGov April 1–4, 2023 1,319 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 44% 14%
Premise March 31 – April 3, 2023 1,562 (RV) 44% 43% 13%
Rasmussen Reports March 30 – April 3, 2023 971 (LV) ± 3.0% 40% 47% 13%
Morning Consult March 31 – April 2, 2023 5,000 (RV) ± 1.0% 42% 41% 17%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[A] March 31 – April 1, 2023 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 43% 47% 10%
YouGov/Yahoo News March 30–31, 2023 729 (RV) ± 3.3% 45% 43% 12%
Echelon Insights March 27–29, 2023 1,007 (LV) ± 3.8% 47% 44% 9%
Cygnal March 26–27, 2023 2,550 (LV) ± 1.9% 47% 45% 8%
Quinnipiac University March 23–27, 2023 1,600 (RV) ± 2.5% 48% 46% 6%
Morning Consult March 24–26, 2023 5,000 (RV) ± 1.0% 43% 42% 15%
Harvard/Harris March 22–23, 2023 2,905 (RV) 41% 45% 14%
Marquette University March 12–22, 2023 863 (RV) ± 4.0% 38% 38% 24%
Premise March 16–21, 2023 1,509 (RV) 41% 47% 12%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies March 20, 2023 1,250 (LV) 44% 44% 12%
YouGov/Yahoo News March 16–20, 2023 1,059 (RV) ± 2.7% 45% 43% 12%
McLaughlin & Associates March 16–20, 2023 1,000 (LV) 43% 48% 9%
Morning Consult March 17–19, 2023 5,000 (RV) ± 1.0% 44% 41% 15%
Quinnipiac University March 9–13, 2023 1,635 (RV) ± 2.4% 49% 45% 6%
Morning Consult March 10–12, 2023 5,000 (RV) ± 1.0% 43% 42% 15%
Wick Insights March 6–9, 2023 1,125 (LV) 45% 43% 12%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies March 7–8, 2023 1,201 (LV) 44% 44% 12%
Premise March 4–7, 2023 1,621 (RV) 44% 45% 11%
Morning Consult March 3–5, 2023 5,000 (RV) ± 1.0% 42% 43% 15%
Cygnal February 24–27, 2023 2,424 (LV) ± 2.0% 47% 45% 8%
YouGov/Yahoo News February 23–27, 2023 1,014 (RV) ± 2.7% 43% 45% 12%
Susquehanna February 19–26, 2023 800 (RV) 52% 39%
Emerson College February 24–25, 2023 1,060 (RV) ± 2.9% 42% 46% 12%
Morning Consult February 23–25, 2023 6,000 (RV) 43% 41% 16%
Echelon Insights February 21–23, 2023 1,023 (LV) 47% 44% 9%
McLaughlin & Associates February 17–23, 2023 1,000 (LV) 44% 48% 8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies February 19, 2023 1,102 (LV) 43% 42% 15%
Morning Consult February 17–19, 2023 6,000 (RV) ± 1.0% 42% 41% 17%
Premise February 16–19, 2023 1,717 (RV) 44% 42% 14%
Morning Consult February 16–19, 2023 2,000 (RV) ± 1.5% 42% 41% 17%
Harvard/Harris February 15–16, 2023 1,838 (RV) 41% 46% 13%
Quinnipac University February 9–14, 2023 1,429 (RV) ± 2.6% 48% 46% 6%
Ipsos/Reuters February 6–13, 2023 915 (RV) ± 4.0% 39% 42% 19%
Morning Consult February 10–12, 2023 6,000 (RV) 43% 41% 16%
Rasmussen Reports February 8–12, 2023 900 (LV) ± 3.0% 45% 42% 13%
Public Policy Polling February 10–11, 2023 1,056 (RV) 49% 45% 6%
YouGov/Yahoo News February 2–6, 2023 1,063 (RV) ± 2.8% 47% 41% 12%
Morning Consult February 3–5, 2023 6,000 (RV) ± 1.0% 43% 40% 17%
ABC News/The Washington Post January 27 – February 1, 2023 895 (RV) 45% 48% 7%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies January 28–29, 2023 1,139 (LV) 39% 41% 20%
Morning Consult January 27–29, 2023 6,000 (RV) ± 1.0% 43% 40% 17%
Echelon Insights January 23–25, 2023 1,024 (LV) ± 3.9% 45% 42% 13%
McLaughlin & Associates January 19–24, 2023 1,000 (LV) 43% 48% 9%
Morning Consult January 20–22, 2023 6,000 (RV) ± 1.0% 44% 41% 15%
Emerson College January 19–21, 2023 1,015 (RV) ± 2.5% 41% 44% 15%
Cygnal January 19–20, 2023 2,529 (LV) ± 2.0% 47% 44% 9%
Marquette University January 9–20, 2023 790 (RV) ± 4.0% 40% 40% 20%
Harvard/Harris January 18–19, 2023 2,050 (RV) 41% 46% 13%
YouGov/The Economist January 14–17, 2023 1,314 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 42% 12%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies January 16, 2023 1,458 (LV) 39% 41% 20%
YouGov/YahooNews January 12–16, 2023 1,028 (RV) ± 2.7% 46% 40% 14%
Morning Consult January 10–12, 2023 6,000 (RV) ± 1.0% 43% 40% 17%
Morning Consult January 6–8, 2023 7,500 (RV) ± 1.0% 44% 41% 15%
WPA Intelligence January 2–8, 2023 1,035 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 41% 10%
Morning Consult December 31, 2022 – January 2, 2023 8,000 (RV) ± 1.0% 44% 40% 16%
Data for Progress December 22–29, 2022 1,189 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 45% 8%
YouGov/Yahoo News December 15–19, 2022 1,041 (RV) ± 2.7% 45% 41% 14%
Morning Consult December 16–18, 2022 7,000 (RV) ± 1.0% 43% 41% 16%
Harvard/Harris December 14–15, 2022 1,851 (RV) 40% 45% 15%
Echelon Insights December 12–14, 2022 1,021 (LV) ± 3.7% 46% 44% 10%
McLaughlin & Associates December 9–14, 2022 1,000 (LV) 45% 48% 7%
Morning Consult December 9–11, 2022 7,000 (RV) ± 1.0% 43% 41% 16%
Suffolk University December 7–11, 2022 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 47% 40% 13%
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research December 3–7, 2022 1,500 (RV) ± 2.5% 45% 43% 12%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies December 5, 2022 1,162 (LV) 41% 41% 18%
YouGov/Yahoo News December 1–5, 2022 1,204 (RV) ± 2.6% 45% 42% 13%
Marquette University November 15–22, 2022 840 (RV) ± 4.0% 44% 34% 22%
Emerson College November 18–19, 2022 1,380 (RV) ± 2.5% 45% 41% 14%
Echelon Insights November 17–19, 2022 1,036 (LV) ± 3.8% 42% 45% 13%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies November 17, 2022 1,203 (LV) 43% 42% 15%
Harvard/Harris November 16–17, 2022 2,212 (RV) 42% 44% 14%
Léger November 11–13, 2022 1,007 (A) 36% 33% 31%
Rasmussen Reports November 8–9, 2022 1,767 (LV) ± 2.0% 44% 47% 9%
Democracy Corps/GQR November 6–8, 2022 1,000 (RV) 46% 48% 6%
Morning Consult November 2–7, 2022 3,980 (RV) ± 3.0% 44% 43% 13%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies November 2, 2022 1,084 (LV) 39% 44% 17%
YouGov/Yahoo News October 27–31, 2022 1,172 (RV) ± 2.7% 48% 42% 10%
Benenson Strategy Group October 27–30, 2022 1,000 (V) ± 3.1% 45% 43% 12%
Echelon Insights October 24–26, 2022 1,014 (LV) ± 3.8% 45% 46% 9%
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research October 22–26, 2022 1,500 (RV) 46% 46% 8%
Suffolk University October 19–24, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 46% 42% 12%
Emerson College October 18–19, 2022 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 40% 17%
YouGov/Yahoo News October 13–17, 2022 1,209 (RV) ± 2.7% 46% 44% 10%
McLaughlin & Associates October 12–17, 2022 1,000 (LV) 44% 50% 6%
Rasmussen Reports October 12–13, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 40% 44% 16%
Harvard/Harris October 12–13, 2022 2,010 (RV) 43% 45% 12%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies October 12, 2022 1,110 (LV) 40% 41% 19%
Siena College/The New York Times October 9–12, 2022 792 (LV) 44% 45% 11%
John Zogby Strategies October 5, 2022 1,006 (LV) ± 3.2% 45% 41% 14%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies October 2–3, 2022 1,128 (LV) 43% 41% 16%
YouGov/Yahoo News September 23–27, 2022 1,138 (RV) ± 2.7% 47% 45% 8%
McLaughlin & Associates September 17–22, 2022 1,000 (LV) 45% 49% 6%
Emerson College September 20–21, 2022 1,368 (LV) ± 2.6% 45% 44% 11%
ABC News/The Washington Post September 18–21, 2022 908 (RV) ± 3.5% 46% 48% 6%
Premise September 16–19, 2022 1,703 (A) 51% 49%
Echelon Insights September 16–19, 2022 1,056 (LV) ± 3.8% 47% 44% 9%
Refield & Wilton Strategies September 14–15, 2022 1,163 (LV) 43% 40% 17%
Marquette University September 6–14, 2022 1,282 (RV) ± 3.6% 42% 36% 22%
Siena College/The New York Times September 6–14, 2022 1,399 (RV) 45% 42% 13%
Harvard/Harris September 7–8, 2022 1,854 (RV) 42% 45% 13%
Echelon Insights August 31 – September 7, 2022 1,228 (LV) ± 3.5% 46% 45% 9%
YouGov/Yahoo News September 2–6, 2022 1,247 (RV) ± 2.6% 48% 42% 10%
Premise September 2–5, 2022 1,185 (RV) 51% 49%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies August 28, 2022 1,050 (LV) 40% 42% 18%
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research August 17–25, 2022 1,313 (RV) 50% 44% 6%
Emerson College August 23–24, 2022 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 42% 15%
McLaughlin & Associates August 20–24, 2022 1,000 (LV) 45% 49% 6%
Echelon Insights August 19–22, 2022 1,054 (LV) ± 3.6% 47% 42% 11%
YouGov/Yahoo News August 18–22, 2022 1,185 (RV) 46% 42% 12%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies August 17, 2022 1,156 (LV) 39% 42% 19%
YouGov/Yahoo News July 28 – August 1, 2022 1,152 (RV) 45% 42% 13%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies July 29, 2022 1,094 (LV) 35% 42% 23%
Harvard/Harris July 27–28, 2022 1,885 (RV) 41% 45% 14%
Rasmussen Reports July 26–27, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 40% 46% 14%
Suffolk University July 22–25, 2022 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 45% 41% 14%
Emerson College July 19–20, 2022 1,078 (RV) ± 2.9% 43% 46% 11%
Echelon Insights July 15–18, 2022 1,022 (LV) 46% 44% 10%
The Trafalgar Group (R) July 11–14, 2022 1,085 (LV) ± 2.9% 43% 48% 10%
YouGov/Yahoo News July 8–11, 2022 1,261 (RV) 44% 43% 13%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies July 9, 2022 1,078 (LV) 41% 43% 16%
The New York Times/Siena College July 5–7, 2022 849 (RV) ± 4.1% 44% 41% 14%
Harvard/Harris June 28–29, 2022 1,308 (RV) 40% 43% 17%
Emerson College June 28–29, 2022 1,271 (RV) ± 2.7% 39% 44% 17%
YouGov/Yahoo News June 24–27, 2022 1,239 (RV) 46% 43% 11%
McLaughlin & Associates June 17–22, 2022 1,000 (LV) 44% 49% 7%
Echelon Insights June 17–20, 2022 1,030 (LV) 45% 43% 12%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies June 15, 2022 1,064 (LV) 38% 41% 21%
YouGov/Yahoo News June 10–13, 2022 1,243 (RV) 42% 44% 14%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies May 30, 2022 1,173 (LV) 38% 42% 20%
Emerson College May 24–25, 2022 1,148 (RV) ± 2.8% 42% 44% 14%
Echelon Insights May 20–23, 2022 1,020 (LV) 45% 44% 11%
YouGov/Yahoo News May 19–22, 2022 1,360 (RV) 44% 42% 14%
Harvard/Harris May 18–19, 2022 1,963 (RV) 42% 45% 13%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies May 17, 2022 1,120 (LV) 39% 42% 19%
Rasmussen Reports April 28 – May 2, 2022 1,004 (LV) ± 3.0% 36% 50% 14%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies May 1, 2022 1,096 (LV) 40% 44% 16%
Emerson College April 25–26, 2022 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 43% 15%
McLaughlin & Associates April 22–26, 2022 1,000 (LV) 43% 50% 7%
Morning Consult April 22–25, 2022 2,004 (RV) ± 2.0% 45% 44% 11%
InsiderAdvantage (R) April 21–23, 2022 750 (RV) ± 3.6% 43% 47% 10%
YouGov/Yahoo News April 19–22, 2022 1,187 (RV) 43% 41% 16%
Harvard/Harris April 20–21, 2022 1,966 (RV) 43% 45% 12%
Echelon Insights April 18–20, 2022 1,001 (LV) 45% 44% 11%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies April 18, 2022 1,500 (LV) 41% 43% 16%
YouGov/Yahoo News March 31 – April 4, 2022 1,233 (RV) 45% 40% 15%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies April 3, 2022 1,205 (LV) 38% 43% 19%
Marquette Law School March 14–24, 2022 1,004 (A) ± 4.0% 41% 37% 22%
Harvard/Harris March 23–24, 2022 1,990 (RV) 41% 47% 12%
McLaughlin & Associates March 17–22, 2022 1,000 (LV) 46% 49% 5%
Echelon Insights March 18–21, 2022 1,050 (RV) 46% 44% 10%
University of Massachusetts Lowell March 15–21, 2022 873 (RV) ± 3.7% 44% 42% 14%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies March 20, 2022 1,193 (LV) 41% 41% 18%
Emerson College March 18–20, 2022 1,023 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 45% 13%
YouGov/Yahoo News March 10–14, 2022 1,225 (RV) 47% 39% 14%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies March 8, 2022 1,194 (LV) 40% 42% 18%
Wall Street Journal March 2–7, 2022 1,500 (RV) 45% 45% 9%
Schoen Cooperman Research March 2–6, 2022 800 (LV) 44% 44% 12%
YouGov/Yahoo News February 24–27, 2022 1,532 (A) ± 2.9% 40% 39% 21%
NewsNation February 23–24, 2022 1,046 (RV) 37% 41% 22%
Harvard/Harris February 23–24, 2022 2,026 (RV) 42% 48% 10%
Echelon Insights February 19–23, 2022 1,078 (RV) 45% 43% 12%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies February 23, 2022 1,367 (LV) 42% 38% 20%
McLaughlin & Associates February 16–22, 2022 1,000 (LV) 45% 48% 7%
Emerson College February 19–20, 2022 1,138 (RV) ± 2.8% 44% 48% 8%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies February 6, 2022 1,406 (LV) 41% 41% 18%
YouGov/Yahoo News January 20–24, 2022 1,568 (A) ± 2.8% 42% 40% 18%
Morning Consult January 22–23, 2022 2,005 (RV) ± 2.0% 45% 44% 11%
Echelon Insights January 21–23, 2022 1,098 (RV) 47% 43% 10%
Marquette Law School Archived January 28, 2022, at the Wayback Machine January 10–21, 2022 1,000 (A) 43% 33% 24%
Harvard/Harris January 19–20, 2022 1,815 (RV) 40% 46% 14%
McLaughlin & Associates January 13–18, 2022 1,000 (LV) 44% 49% 7%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies January 8–9, 2022 1,430 (LV) 39% 38% 23%
PMC/John Bolton Super Pac Archived January 20, 2022, at the Wayback Machine January 6, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 45% 44% 11%
Rasmussen Reports January 5, 2022 1,015 (LV) ± 3.0% 40% 46% 14%
InsiderAdvantage (R) December 17–19, 2021 750 (RV) ± 3.6% 41% 49% 10%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies December 18, 2021 1,411 (LV) 34% 39% 27%
YouGov/Yahoo News December 9–13, 2021 1,558 (A) 47% 41% 12%
Echelon Insights December 9–13, 2021 1,098 (RV) 47% 44% 9%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies December 5, 2021 1,387 (LV) 38% 42% 20%
Harvard/Harris November 30 – December 2, 2021 1,989 (RV) 45% 48% 7%
Rasmussen Reports November 22–23, 2021 1,200 (LV) ± 3.0% 32% 45% 23%
Wall Street Journal November 16–22, 2021 1,500 (RV) 46% 45% 10%
Echelon Insights[permanent dead link] November 12–18, 2021 1,013 (RV) 45% 45% 10%
McLaughlin & Associates November 11–16, 2021 1,000 (LV) 44% 49% 7%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies November 15, 2021 1,500 (RV) 35% 41% 24%
Marquette Law School Archived November 20, 2021, at the Wayback Machine November 1–10, 2021 1,004 (A) 42% 34% 24%
YouGov/Yahoo News November 4–8, 2021 1,673 (A) 43% 39% 18%
Suffolk University November 3–5, 2021 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 40% 44% 16%
Emerson College November 3–4, 2021 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 45% 12%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies October 31, 2021 1,387 (LV) 42% 42% 16%
Harvard/Harris October 26–28, 2021 1,578 (LV) 45% 46% 9%
YouGov/Yahoo News October 19–21, 2021 1,704 (A) 43% 40% 17%
Echelon Insights October 15–19, 2021 1,098 (RV) 48% 42% 10%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies October 17, 2021 1,366 (LV) 42% 40% 18%
Selzer and Company/Grinnell College October 13–17, 2021 745 (LV) ± 3.6% 40% 40% 19%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies October 4–6, 2021 1,345 (LV) 43% 41% 16%
Echelon Insights September 17–23, 2021 1,005 (RV) 50% 39% 11%
Rasmussen Reports September 21–22, 2021 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 41% 51% 8%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies September 19–20, 2021 1,330 (LV) 42% 40% 18%
McLaughlin & Associates September 9–14, 2021 1,000 (LV) 47% 50% 3%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies September 4–5, 2021 1,357 (LV) 45% 42% 13%
Emerson College August 30 – September 1, 2021 1,200 (RV) ± 2.7% 46% 47% 7%
Rasmussen Reports August 16–17, 2021 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 37% 43% 20%
YouGov/Yahoo News July 30 – August 2, 2021 1,552 (A) 47% 37% 16%
PMC/John Bolton Super Pac Archived July 19, 2021, at the Wayback Machine July 8, 2021 1,000 (LV) 46% 43% 11%
YouGov/Yahoo News June 22–24, 2021 1,592 (A) 47% 35% 18%
YouGov/Yahoo News May 24–26, 2021 1,588 (A) 46% 36% 18%
YouGov/Yahoo News May 11–13, 2021 1,561 (A) 48% 36% 16%
Ipsos/Reuters April 12–16, 2021 1,106 (A) 45% 28% 27%
PMC/John Bolton Super Pac Archived September 29, 2021, at the Wayback Machine April 3–7, 2021 1,000 (LV) 46% 42% 12%
Joe Biden versus Donald Trump versus Liz Cheney
Poll source Date Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Liz
Cheney

Independent
Other/
Undecided
Ipsos/Reuters February 6–13, 2023 915 (RV) ± 4.0% 32% 39% 15% 14%
Premise September 2–5, 2022 1,185 (RV) 37% 42% 21%
Echelon Insights August 19–22, 2022 1,054 (LV) ± 3.6% 38% 41% 12% 9%
YouGov/Yahoo News August 18–22, 2022 1,185 (RV) 32% 40% 11% 17%
Joe Biden versus Donald Trump versus Andrew Yang
Poll source Date Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Andrew
Yang

Forward
Other/
Undecided
Echelon Insights August 19–22, 2022 1,054 (LV) ± 3.6% 43% 39% 8% 10%
Echelon Insights October 15–19, 2021 1,098 (RV) 44% 40% 5% 11%
Joe Biden versus Ron DeSantis versus Donald Trump
Poll source Date Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Ron
DeSantis

Republican
Donald
Trump

Independent
Other/
Undecided
Ipsos/Reuters May 9–15, 2023 4,415 (A) 37% 19% 22% 22%
Ipsos/Reuters April 21–24, 2023 1,005 (A) 38% 19% 22% 21%
Echelon Insights August 19–22, 2022 1,054 (LV) ± 3.6% 46% 23% 21% 10%
Joe Biden versus generic Republican
Poll source Date Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Generic
Republican
Other/
Undecided
NBC News November 10–14, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 37% 48% 15%
NBC News April 14–18, 2023 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 41% 47% 12%
Morning Consult April 22–25, 2022 2,004 (RV) ± 2.0% 39% 46% 15%
Morning Consult January 22–23, 2022 2,005 (RV) ± 2.0% 37% 46% 17%

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Trump received enough delegates to win the nomination on March 12, 2024.
  2. ^ Attributed to multiple references:[169][170][171][172][173][174][175]
  3. ^ Attributed to multiple references:[184][185][186][131][187][188]
  4. ^ a b c d e Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  1. ^ This poll was sponsored by Trump's campaign

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